The moment fantasy football fans have been waiting for months has arrived: draft day.
Whether you have been tirelessly completing mock drafts on online, or just bought a magazine off the newsstand yesterday, you want to be as well-prepared for your league’s draft as possible. With the wealth of information available, it can be hard to decide which players to draft and which players to avoid.
As a fantasy football veteran, I have reached on my share of players in the six years I have played this great game. My goal is for you is to not make the same mistakes I have.
Below is a group of players who are generally being drafted much higher than they should be. It is important to note that while all of these players are valuable in their own right, it is my opinion that they are being overvalued and you would be better off waiting to take another player.
Also, please consider that the
Peyton Manning, QB, Denver Broncos
Manning has an ADP (average draft position) of 16.4 on ESPN.com which means the future Hall-of-Famer has been getting scooped up around the beginning or middle of the second round, depending on your league size.
Last season Manning tallied more than 4,600 passing yards and 37 touchdowns, good for 304 fantasy points in leagues that use standard scoring (four points for passing TDs and six points for rushing TDs). The addition of former Patriots slot-man Wes Welker, in theory, means Manning would only pad his numbers from 2012.
But because of the depth at quarterback this year (and it is deep!), you won’t find me taking one in the second round. The 16th pick in a 10-team league, for example, would be an excellent spot to take another running back, provided that you already snared one during Round 1.
Andre Johnson, WR, Houston Texans
I’m picking on Johnson here because his ADP of almost 30 doesn’t sit with me right. The Houston Texans are a run-oriented team without a big-time No.2 receiving option –two things that taint Johnson’s value. The 11-year veteran also has a propensity to miss time. Johnson has missed 12 games in the last three seasons. He has also never scored double-digit touchdowns in his career, despite posting three 1,500-plus yards receiving three times.
For a third-round pick, you can do better than Johnson.
DeMarco Murray, RB, Dallas Cowboys
Much like Johnson, Murray’s biggest problem continues to be his health, or lack thereof. Dating back to his college days at Oklahoma, Murray missed considerable time with various ailments. Now, as a pro, the injury bug hasn’t stopped biting. Murray has missed nine games in his first two seasons in Dallas. His durability is a legitimate concern and something you should consider on draft day.
ESPN.com has Murray ranked as its 21st-rated RB, and 45th overall player. Yahoo.com has apparently even more faith in Murray, ranking him 38th overall and 19th among all ball-carriers.
But to me, Murray is a flex play at best. Fourth-round picks should be reserved for players that will consistently start and you just can’t trust that Murray will suit up every week.
Seahawks Defense/Special Teams
It happens every year: around the seventh or eighth round someone decides to pull the trigger and select the highest-rated team defense on the board.
That person should not be you.
The problem with selecting a defense so early, is that statistics that drive team defenses scoring, such as fumble recoveries, defensive touchdowns and interceptions, can be very fluky on a year-to-year basis. Take the 2012 Chicago Bears, for example. Last year, the Bears defense forced a whopping 44 turnovers and scored nine touchdowns. They recovered nearly 70 percent of the fumbles they forced and picked off 24 passes.
That will not happen again.
If you are truly hell bent on taking a defense, but still want to go value, try the Denver or Cincinnati. The Broncos ADP is hovering right around 117 and the Bengals are at 111 on ESPN.com. Compare those numbers to Seattle’s ADP of 70.5, and you will potentially have an equally high payoff for a fraction of the price.
