Vote | Illustrated by Kayli Thompson | The Wright State Guardian
In a press release on Oct. 13, Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose informed Ohioans of a three times increase in the number of early votes cast for the 2020 presidential election. In the first week of early voting, Ohio gathered 193,021 votes while this time prior to the 2016 election, 64,312 votes were received.
“Voter enthusiasm is off the charts and we couldn’t be happier. We’ve never seen this many people voting early in-person and it demonstrates what Ohioans know to be true – it’s easy to vote in the Buckeye state!” LaRose said.
Why the drastic increase?
“This is really the perfect storm,” said Wright State University (WSU) political science professor Dr. Lee Hannah. “Voters are enthusiastic and engaged and most have made up their minds on the presidential race.”
Dr. Hannah said the coronavirus fears have left some voters with no other option than to cast their votes in an early fashion.
“The coronavirus has had an effect. For one, people who don’t feel safe to go to the polls are definitely voting early. The parties, especially the Democrats, have pushed early voting and that voters make a plan so people are taking those cues,” Dr. Hannah said.
WSU political science and honors professor Paul R. Leonard said that convenience is also a factor in determining why Ohioans are showing out in record numbers for early voting in this year’s election.
“If a person has decided, why fight the anticipated crowds on election day? Some people want to just get it over with. That’s what I did,” Leonard said.
Leonard has an extensive background in both local and state politics, being elected four times to seats in the Ohio General Assembly, serving as Mayor of Dayton from 1982 to 1986, and additionally serving as Ohio’s 58th Lt. Gov. from 1987 to 1991.
“There are also concerns of potential violence at the polls,” Leonard said. “Trump has urged his followers to show up at the polls and make sure things are going right. A lot of folks just want to avoid possible confrontation.”
Ohio’s voting power
Historically speaking, Ohio has held some serious clues as to how the Presidential election will pan out.
“The Republicans have been one of the two major parties since 1860,” Said Dr. Hannah. “They have never won the White House without winning Ohio, and that will likely remain true in this election. If President Trump does not win Ohio, given what we know about the party lean and demographics of the state, it’s very unlikely that he’s winning in states like Pennsylvania or Michigan. Per usual, Ohio is crucial for the Republicans.”
WSU political science professor Dr. Sean Wilson says this isn’t the case for Biden, however.
“Biden can lose Ohio and still have a very reasonable path going forward. In this sense, Ohio is less outcome determinative than what I call the big three: Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. It will be these states that decide the fate of the Trump candidacy,” said Dr. Wilson.
Dr. Wilson said that “the big three” are all more Democratic than Ohio.
“During the 2016 election, Trump’s victory in each of the big three states was only about 1%. Trump’s victory in Ohio however, was 8%. If you take 3rd parties into consideration, right wing candidates in Ohio, in total, had about a 12% victory compared to their competitors in 2016,” Dr. Wilson said.
“Ohio is a state that tends to lean more Republican than the big three. You can pretty much take Trump’s share of the vote in Ohio this November and subtract a few points to find out what it will be in the other three. I don’t know how many points, but the overall dynamic is there. Polls are showing this as well,” said Dr. Wilson.
Does increased early voting mean increased voter turnout?
While some may assume early voting could show a boost in overall voting turnout, Dr. Hannah said the relationship between the two isn’t as strong as some might think.
“We don’t necessarily see a huge difference in turnout between states that have early voting and those that do not,” said Dr. Hannah.
“What we do see, however, is shorter wait times on voting day and increased opportunities for voters across the state to have their voice heard. The ability for these people to not lose out on wages or risk having to take time off of work to go and vote is huge, especially now during a global pandemic. Anything you can do to have shorter lines and smaller crowds is valuable,” said Dr. Hannah.
Professor Leonard echoed the importance of voter participation across the state whether early or in person, and said that, “Anything that can be done to facilitate voting is important to the survival of our democracy.”
For more information on healthy voting tips, visit: www.healthyvoting.org/ohio
Additionally, details on deadlines for voting in your area may be found at: www.voteohio.gov
