Russia Ukraine Update | Photos by Kelsie Tomlinson | The Wright State Guardian
Many events have unfolded since Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022. In months of fighting and reckoning with the consequences of war, a major concern is when the war will end, and more importantly, how it will do so.
Prospects for peace and war
On Monday, Oct. 24, 2022, the School of Social Sciences and International Studies held an event that updated attendees on the events that have transpired since the invasion.
Drs. Vaughn Shannon, Sean Pollock and Liam Anderson all presented on the war from various perspectives, with each professor speaking on the context behind the war in some way.
Shannon outlined how Russia has felt an increased amount of angst in relation to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Pollock detailed the Russian president’s reliance on fake history as a motivator, and Anderson ultimately considered how this war could end.
This event came after the Russian annexation of four Ukrainian territories in September. Separate from the event, each professor spoke individually about what the current prospects are for the war and how it may end.
What happens next?
“[Vladimir] Putin’s maximalist goal is the reconquest of Ukraine by Russia and, at the very least, the annexation of majority Russian-speaking Ukrainian lands,” Pollock said.
The history professor concluded that both sides will have to compromise in order for the war to end; however, Pollock is not too optimistic about that happening any time soon.
Shannon thinks that the war will continue for a long time if both sides remain headstrong. Shannon warns that the conflict may take years to culminate in an ideal form of compromise, harkening back to recent American history in Iraq.
“It can be eight to 10 years before people get [to a compromise],” Shannon said.
Anderson views the current predicament of the war as a game of “chicken,” which the political science professor explained as a game where two parties are steering towards each other in a risk-filled dare. The loser is the one who avoids the impact.
Speaking on the consequences of the war, and how Russia has performed “badly” against Ukraine, Anderson does not foresee many viable options for the Russian president.
“There’s zero possibility that Vladimir Putin can just withdraw. Without taking control of these regions that are now part of Russia, he can’t withdraw,” Anderson explained. “So, if things continue to go badly, then his only option is to escalate it to a higher level.”
From there, Anderson proposed that, in the case of Russian escalation of the war through the use of nuclear weapons, the response from the United States would be pivotal.
Anderson states that a lack of response from American forces against nuclear action would symbolize a message of encouragement, whereas a direct attack against Russia from the U.S. may prompt all parties towards what Anderson calls “a very dangerous path.”
